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Morgan Stanley Gives Public Power Corporation Overweight Rating, Targets 27 Amid Strong Investment Outlook
Morgan Stanley has just lifted its view on Greece’s largest electricity supplier, issuing an overweight recommendation and a price target of €27 for Public Power Corporation (PPC). With the shares hovering around €23.70, the target implies a 14% upside.
The upgrade hinges on PPC’s ambitious €24.2 billion investment program slated for 2026‑2030. The plan concentrates on renewable‑energy‑source (RES) projects, grid upgrades and a comprehensive reshaping of the company’s energy mix. Management believes the program will tighten operational levers and lift the financial profile in the coming years.
Central to the optimism is PPC’s integrated business line, which the bank views as the engine of future growth. Projections show EBITDA in this segment climbing from €1.3 billion in 2025 to €2.4 billion in 2028 and €3.3 billion by 2030 – a compound annual growth rate of roughly 21% for 2025‑2030. By the end of the plan, the integrated activity is expected to contribute about 72% of total EBITDA. Morgan Stanley’s own forecasts are modestly lower, estimating €2.3 billion in 2028 and €2.7 billion in 2030.
The €24.2 billion budget is heavily weighted toward the integrated line: 69% will be allocated there. Within that portion, 61% is earmarked for wind and solar, 13% for flexible generation units, 9% for hydroelectric plants and 7% for energy‑storage infrastructure. Only a small slice – 7% – is earmarked for the electricity‑supply segment.
PPC’s vertically integrated model – spanning generation, wholesale trading, distribution and retail supply – gives it a sizable customer base. The retail arm serves roughly 8.6 million Greek households, about half of the national market, and offers a built‑in view of demand that helps cushion the company against wholesale price swings. In 2025, production is projected at 21 TWh versus a supply of 32 TWh, a gap that the planned RES, storage and flexible‑generation additions are expected to narrow.
Beyond Greece, PPC holds a 15% retail share in Romania, ranking it second there, and has begun operations in Italy, Bulgaria and Croatia. The expansion is driven by supportive demand growth, the phasing out of aging fossil‑fuel units, limited interconnection capacity and comparatively high regional electricity prices.
Management has also flagged the potential of data‑center demand. Up to 2 GW of capacity could be captured in Greece and another 2 GW in other markets, though these figures are not incorporated into the bullish scenario.
Analysts point to execution risk as the primary downside. Delays, cost overruns, permitting bottlenecks, lower RES capture prices, generation curtailment, weaker returns from new units, softer data‑center demand or heightened regulatory scrutiny could all erode the investment case. Conversely, if the plan is delivered ahead of schedule, regional markets stay tight, data‑center contracts materialise sooner or RES and storage returns exceed forecasts, the upside could surpass the €27 target.
The stock has already re‑rated and gained momentum since the beginning of the year, but Morgan Stanley’s coverage signals further upside potential through December 2027. Investors will be closely monitoring PPC’s next earnings release, the shareholder vote on the €24.2 billion investment plan, and any regulatory decisions that might affect deployment pace.
The company’s Q3 2026 earnings are slated for release next quarter, where management is expected to detail progress on the investment program and provide updated EBITDA guidance. Shareholders will also vote on the allocation of the program, while regulators may review permitting and environmental approvals for the planned RES projects.
In short, Morgan Stanley’s overweight rating and €27 price target reflect confidence in PPC’s integrated business model, sizable investment program and expanding footprint in Greece and Romania. The decisive factor will be the company’s ability to execute the plan on time and within budget.
The upgrade hinges on PPC’s ambitious €24.2 billion investment program slated for 2026‑2030. The plan concentrates on renewable‑energy‑source (RES) projects, grid upgrades and a comprehensive reshaping of the company’s energy mix. Management believes the program will tighten operational levers and lift the financial profile in the coming years.
Central to the optimism is PPC’s integrated business line, which the bank views as the engine of future growth. Projections show EBITDA in this segment climbing from €1.3 billion in 2025 to €2.4 billion in 2028 and €3.3 billion by 2030 – a compound annual growth rate of roughly 21% for 2025‑2030. By the end of the plan, the integrated activity is expected to contribute about 72% of total EBITDA. Morgan Stanley’s own forecasts are modestly lower, estimating €2.3 billion in 2028 and €2.7 billion in 2030.
The €24.2 billion budget is heavily weighted toward the integrated line: 69% will be allocated there. Within that portion, 61% is earmarked for wind and solar, 13% for flexible generation units, 9% for hydroelectric plants and 7% for energy‑storage infrastructure. Only a small slice – 7% – is earmarked for the electricity‑supply segment.
PPC’s vertically integrated model – spanning generation, wholesale trading, distribution and retail supply – gives it a sizable customer base. The retail arm serves roughly 8.6 million Greek households, about half of the national market, and offers a built‑in view of demand that helps cushion the company against wholesale price swings. In 2025, production is projected at 21 TWh versus a supply of 32 TWh, a gap that the planned RES, storage and flexible‑generation additions are expected to narrow.
Beyond Greece, PPC holds a 15% retail share in Romania, ranking it second there, and has begun operations in Italy, Bulgaria and Croatia. The expansion is driven by supportive demand growth, the phasing out of aging fossil‑fuel units, limited interconnection capacity and comparatively high regional electricity prices.
Management has also flagged the potential of data‑center demand. Up to 2 GW of capacity could be captured in Greece and another 2 GW in other markets, though these figures are not incorporated into the bullish scenario.
Analysts point to execution risk as the primary downside. Delays, cost overruns, permitting bottlenecks, lower RES capture prices, generation curtailment, weaker returns from new units, softer data‑center demand or heightened regulatory scrutiny could all erode the investment case. Conversely, if the plan is delivered ahead of schedule, regional markets stay tight, data‑center contracts materialise sooner or RES and storage returns exceed forecasts, the upside could surpass the €27 target.
The stock has already re‑rated and gained momentum since the beginning of the year, but Morgan Stanley’s coverage signals further upside potential through December 2027. Investors will be closely monitoring PPC’s next earnings release, the shareholder vote on the €24.2 billion investment plan, and any regulatory decisions that might affect deployment pace.
The company’s Q3 2026 earnings are slated for release next quarter, where management is expected to detail progress on the investment program and provide updated EBITDA guidance. Shareholders will also vote on the allocation of the program, while regulators may review permitting and environmental approvals for the planned RES projects.
In short, Morgan Stanley’s overweight rating and €27 price target reflect confidence in PPC’s integrated business model, sizable investment program and expanding footprint in Greece and Romania. The decisive factor will be the company’s ability to execute the plan on time and within budget.
