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Motilal Oswal Projects 10% Nifty Earnings Growth Ahead of June Quarter Earnings Season
As the June‑quarter earnings calendar opens with Tata Consultancy Services slated to report on July 9, domestic brokerage Motilal Oswal has issued a bullish forecast that Nifty earnings could climb 10 % year‑on‑year, the fastest pace in four quarters.
The outlook hinges on a solid revenue trajectory across the market’s large, mid and small‑cap segments. Large‑cap companies are expected to record a 17 % year‑on‑year sales increase, mid‑caps a 15 % rise and small‑caps a 16 % growth. However, EBITDA is projected to contract – a 2 % decline for large‑caps, a 7 % drop for mid‑caps and a 12 % rise for small‑caps.
Motilal Oswal also highlights that the Nifty 50 index is poised for a 10‑12 % earnings gain in FY25, with the June quarter acting as a key driver. Large‑cap earnings are forecast to grow 17 % YoY, mid‑cap earnings 15 % and small‑cap earnings 16 %.
Beyond the overall market view, the brokerage has identified ten Nifty constituents it deems attractive for the upcoming earnings cycle. The following summarizes the key points for each stock.
1. Bharti Airtel – Target price of ₹2,270, implying a 21 % upside. Motilal Oswal projects a 4 % quarter‑on‑quarter revenue increase, driven by a 6 % rise in the Homes business and a 5 % growth in the Africa segment. India wireless revenue and EBITDA are expected to grow about 2.5 % quarter‑on‑quarter.
2. State Bank of India (SBI) – Target price of ₹1,300, a 25 % upside. The brokerage expects net interest margins (NIMs) to stay near 2.84 %, with term‑deposit repricing offset by better corporate lending spreads. Asset quality is anticipated to improve.
3. ICICI Bank – Target price of ₹1,300, a 27 % upside. Motilal Oswal forecasts a 4.1 % sequential loan growth and 18.5 % YoY growth, supported by gold loans, corporate lending, personal loans and mortgages. Deposits are projected to rise 3.2 % sequentially and 15.2 % annually.
4. Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) – Target price of ₹3,910, a 25 % upside. The brokerage expects volume growth to be offset by margin pressure, with a 200‑basis‑point contraction in the automotive business and a similar trend in the tractor segment. Earnings growth is expected to be flat.
5. Titan Company – Target price of ₹5,250, a 19 % upside. Motilal Oswal projects a 38 % YoY revenue growth (excluding bullion) and a 35 % rise in Tanishq like‑to‑like sales. The standalone jewellery EBIT margin is expected to decline 80 basis points to 10.7 % due to an unfavorable product mix.
6. Eternal – Target price of ₹380, a 36 % upside. Net order value in the food‑delivery and quick‑commerce businesses is expected to grow 19.7 % and 84.4 % YoY, respectively. The food‑delivery take rate is projected at 21.5 % and quick‑commerce gross profit margin at 26.9 %.
7. Shriram Finance – Target price of ₹1,230, a 17 % upside. The brokerage estimates disbursements of ₹49,800 cr in Q1FY27, raising assets under management to ₹3,140 cr, up 15 % YoY and 4 % sequentially.
8. InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo) – Target price of ₹6,590, a 22 % upside. Motilal Oswal expects fuel costs to account for 38 % of revenue in the quarter, up from 28.5 % a year earlier, due to higher ATF prices. Management is focused on expanding international routes and code‑share partnerships.
9. HDFC AMC – Target price of ₹3,250, an 18 % upside. Quarterly average assets under management (QAAUM) and yields are expected to remain stable. Revenue growth is likely muted, with EBITDA margin around 80 % and other income improving sequentially.
10. BSE – Target price of ₹4,350, an 8 % upside. Motilal Oswal anticipates strong transaction‑revenue growth driven by higher cash and derivatives trading volumes. EBITDA margin is expected to expand due to improved operating efficiency.
The brokerage’s analysis is rooted in publicly available data and market expectations. It stresses that the June quarter will be a decisive period for large‑cap earnings, with TCS and other IT firms likely to set the tone for the rest of the cycle. Investors will watch the reported figures for the 10 highlighted stocks, as well as broader sectoral trends such as banking NIMs, telecom revenue, automotive margins and asset‑quality metrics.
In summary, Motilal Oswal’s forecast points to a 10 % rise in Nifty earnings for FY25, driven by solid revenue growth in large and small caps, while mid‑caps face margin pressure. The upcoming earnings releases—particularly from TCS, SBI, ICICI Bank and the listed companies on the 10‑stock list—will provide the first concrete data to confirm or adjust these expectations.
The outlook hinges on a solid revenue trajectory across the market’s large, mid and small‑cap segments. Large‑cap companies are expected to record a 17 % year‑on‑year sales increase, mid‑caps a 15 % rise and small‑caps a 16 % growth. However, EBITDA is projected to contract – a 2 % decline for large‑caps, a 7 % drop for mid‑caps and a 12 % rise for small‑caps.
Motilal Oswal also highlights that the Nifty 50 index is poised for a 10‑12 % earnings gain in FY25, with the June quarter acting as a key driver. Large‑cap earnings are forecast to grow 17 % YoY, mid‑cap earnings 15 % and small‑cap earnings 16 %.
Beyond the overall market view, the brokerage has identified ten Nifty constituents it deems attractive for the upcoming earnings cycle. The following summarizes the key points for each stock.
1. Bharti Airtel – Target price of ₹2,270, implying a 21 % upside. Motilal Oswal projects a 4 % quarter‑on‑quarter revenue increase, driven by a 6 % rise in the Homes business and a 5 % growth in the Africa segment. India wireless revenue and EBITDA are expected to grow about 2.5 % quarter‑on‑quarter.
2. State Bank of India (SBI) – Target price of ₹1,300, a 25 % upside. The brokerage expects net interest margins (NIMs) to stay near 2.84 %, with term‑deposit repricing offset by better corporate lending spreads. Asset quality is anticipated to improve.
3. ICICI Bank – Target price of ₹1,300, a 27 % upside. Motilal Oswal forecasts a 4.1 % sequential loan growth and 18.5 % YoY growth, supported by gold loans, corporate lending, personal loans and mortgages. Deposits are projected to rise 3.2 % sequentially and 15.2 % annually.
4. Mahindra & Mahindra (M&M) – Target price of ₹3,910, a 25 % upside. The brokerage expects volume growth to be offset by margin pressure, with a 200‑basis‑point contraction in the automotive business and a similar trend in the tractor segment. Earnings growth is expected to be flat.
5. Titan Company – Target price of ₹5,250, a 19 % upside. Motilal Oswal projects a 38 % YoY revenue growth (excluding bullion) and a 35 % rise in Tanishq like‑to‑like sales. The standalone jewellery EBIT margin is expected to decline 80 basis points to 10.7 % due to an unfavorable product mix.
6. Eternal – Target price of ₹380, a 36 % upside. Net order value in the food‑delivery and quick‑commerce businesses is expected to grow 19.7 % and 84.4 % YoY, respectively. The food‑delivery take rate is projected at 21.5 % and quick‑commerce gross profit margin at 26.9 %.
7. Shriram Finance – Target price of ₹1,230, a 17 % upside. The brokerage estimates disbursements of ₹49,800 cr in Q1FY27, raising assets under management to ₹3,140 cr, up 15 % YoY and 4 % sequentially.
8. InterGlobe Aviation (IndiGo) – Target price of ₹6,590, a 22 % upside. Motilal Oswal expects fuel costs to account for 38 % of revenue in the quarter, up from 28.5 % a year earlier, due to higher ATF prices. Management is focused on expanding international routes and code‑share partnerships.
9. HDFC AMC – Target price of ₹3,250, an 18 % upside. Quarterly average assets under management (QAAUM) and yields are expected to remain stable. Revenue growth is likely muted, with EBITDA margin around 80 % and other income improving sequentially.
10. BSE – Target price of ₹4,350, an 8 % upside. Motilal Oswal anticipates strong transaction‑revenue growth driven by higher cash and derivatives trading volumes. EBITDA margin is expected to expand due to improved operating efficiency.
The brokerage’s analysis is rooted in publicly available data and market expectations. It stresses that the June quarter will be a decisive period for large‑cap earnings, with TCS and other IT firms likely to set the tone for the rest of the cycle. Investors will watch the reported figures for the 10 highlighted stocks, as well as broader sectoral trends such as banking NIMs, telecom revenue, automotive margins and asset‑quality metrics.
In summary, Motilal Oswal’s forecast points to a 10 % rise in Nifty earnings for FY25, driven by solid revenue growth in large and small caps, while mid‑caps face margin pressure. The upcoming earnings releases—particularly from TCS, SBI, ICICI Bank and the listed companies on the 10‑stock list—will provide the first concrete data to confirm or adjust these expectations.
